Justice O'Connor's appointment in 1981 by President Ronald Reagan led some to claim that she would be the "women's" Justice. This was the highest position a woman had yet achieved in American government, and, as the Justice herself is fond of saying, she was honored to be the first, but she sure did not want to be the last female Justice. ![]() ![]() Substantial changes in educational policy, in school effectiveness, and in income inequality would all have important effects on black test score distributions and on the admissions landscape.The First Female Justice, But Also So Much More Than ThatĮvery woman in the country owes a debt of gratitude to Justice O'Connor for the way she has carried the mantle of being the first female United States Supreme Court Justice. Our analysis proceeds from the assumption that the most likely future course will resemble past trends. If the Supreme Court follows through with O’Connor’s stated intention to ban affirmative action in 25 years, and if colleges do not adjust in other ways (such as reducing the importance of numerical qualifications to admissions), we project substantial declines in the representation of African Americans among admitted students at selective institutions. Still, it seems unlikely that today’s level of racial diversity will be achievable without some form of continuing affirmative action. The magnitude of the underrepresentation is likely to shrink-in our most optimistic simulation, somewhat over half of the gap that would be opened by the elimination of race preferences will be closed by the projected improvement in black achievement. We conclude that under reasonable assumptions, African American students will continue to be substantially underrepresented among the most qualified college applicants for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, by relying on reasonable historical assumptions that are arguably optimistic, we develop a baseline case for assessing the likelihood of O’Connor’s forecast. We are well aware of the hazards inherent in our exercise: No such distant projections can be definitive. Our central question is whether this progress will plausibly be fast enough to validate Justice O’Connor’s prediction. Just as the last decades have seen considerable narrowing of gaps on each margin, further progress can be expected over the next quarter century. ![]() Our projections extrapolate past trends on two important margins: Gaps between the economic resources of black and white students’ families, and narrowing of test score gaps between black and white students with similar family incomes. In this essay, we attempt to evaluate the plausibility of Justice O’Connor’s conjecture by projecting the racial composition of the 2025 elite college applicant pool. The rate at which racial gaps in precollegiate academic achievement can plausibly be expected to erode is a matter of considerable uncertainty. Bollinger, Justice Sandra Day O’Connor concluded that affirmative action in college admissions is justifiable, but not in perpetuity: “We expect that 25 years from now, the use of racial preferences will no longer be necessary to further the interest approved today.” In College Access: Opportunity or Privilege, Michael McPherson and Morton Schapiro, eds, New York: The College Board, 2006, pp. ![]() Rothstein, Jesse with Alan Krueger and Sarah Turner.
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